基于GM(1，1)模型在招生系统中的应用

论文编号:XXLW015论文字数:9451,页数:22

摘 要

本文对GM(1,1)模型做了介绍，并且对GM（1,1）模型做了较为详细的解释和分析。对于小样本、不确定确定问题的解决，用传统的数学建模方法并不合适，而浙江省普通高校招生人数预测这样的属于此类问题，灰色系统理论的GM（1,1）模型在解决此类方面的问题相对于传统方法有明显的优势。GM(1，1)模型预测方法精确性好，实用性强。尝试GM(1,1)模型对浙江省普通高校招生人数预测问题进行了调查和研究，建立了浙江省普通高校招生人数预测的灰色数学模型，并给出了相应的计算方法，讨论了其模型的建立、参数的求解、优化等方面的理论，并结合浙江省历年普通高校高校招生数据进行实证分析，完成了基于GM(1,1)模型的普通高招生预测系统中的设计与实现。

关键词：灰色系统理论 招生预测 GM(1,1)模型 高校招生。

Based on GM (1,1) model in the admission system applications

Abstract

This article on the GM (1,1) model have been described, and on the GM (1,1) model to do a more detailed explanation and analysis. For small samples and uncertain solution to the problem identified with the traditional methods of mathematical modeling is not appropriate, but ordinary college enrollment is predicted this kind of problem, the theory of gray system GM (1,1) model to solve Such issues relative to the traditional method has obvious advantages. GM (1,1) model forecasting accuracy is good, practical. Try GM (1,1) model forecasts ordinary college enrollment conducted a survey and research, established a number of ordinary college enrollment Grey forecasting model, and the corresponding calculation method, and discusses the model The establishment of parameters for solving, optimization and the theory, combined with the calendar year, Zhejiang College Enrollment empirical data analysis is completed based on GM (1,1) model prediction system of ordinary high-enrollment in the design and implementation.

Keywords：the gray system theory Enrollment prediction GM (1,1) model college enrollment.

目录

中文摘要i

英文摘要ii

目录iii

第一章 绪论 1

1.1 选题背景及研究意义1

1.2 研究现状1

第二章 GM(1,1)模型 3

2.1 灰色系统的基本概念3

2.2 GM(1,1)4

2.3 GM(1,1)的主要类型5

2.4 GM(1,1)的适用范围6

2.5 GM(1,1)预测的一般过程6

第三章 基于灰色理论的普通高校招生预测7

3.1 普通高校招生因素分析7

3.1.1 招生人数变化的概述情况的概述7

3.1.2 因素分析8

3.2 普通高校招生预测建立12

第四章 结论17

致谢18

参考文献19